Selling a dead animals stuffed with foam

A dead deer used to to hang in our garage.  I wonder if my daughter ever wonderred whether the rest of the deer was hiding behind the wall.  She never asked but putting a quarter of a dead deer on the garage wall is bound to bring up some questions.

I sold it on ebay and was really proud of myself the the price I got for it, that is until I discovered that shipping was three times more than I charged.  I didn't lose money, but I don't feel any richer for the experience. 

I guess I went full cycle in a bizare world of dead animals stuffed with foam...sold on ebay...expensively packed in more foam...and now hanging in Texas. 

Which part is the weirdest?

Reduce Noise and Speed

I had a great several days last week at Boise State Universities MBA Upgrade program.  It was a chance to connect with professors and classmates as well as meet new people.  It was also humbling. 

I finished my MBA in 2005, back when leveraging looked really smart and investing looked pretty easy.  So many things have changed since getting my huge, barely fit under my arm and would be dangerous to carry in a wind storm, diploma. 

So for three days, I was reminded by distinguished professor after professor that "forecasts are always wrong" and other comforting mantras.  Two things stand out from all the presentations:

1.  Eliminate the noise (reduce variation).
2.  It's the turns that make it hard.

First, eliminating noise is much harder than it sounds.  I once bought a house that looked awful inside.  My Realtor said that I just had the "Freshen up the walls".  A month later I was still covered in paint.  Eliminating static or reducing variation is all about concentration.  But the hard part is deciding what to focus on.  Determining the noise from the song can be nearly impossible, especially if you rely on media for your data. 

Second, it isn't just that turns are hard to predict, the market is going so fast that even if we see a turn coming, we're moving so fast it is difficult to make the turn.  Analogy for Canadians and those living in other places that say, "you betcha" or "aye", it is like trying to turn and slow down on ice, the faster and heavier the vehicle, the more likely you won't make the turn, even if you see it.

So where does that leave us?  What's the point? 

Let me give you a driving analogy since I'm on a roll.  When you drive you have priority areas to give your attention.  One of the most important is looking in front of the car as the highest priority.  For many people, the stereo, GPS, phone, and hot girl jogging by are more important, but that also explains the reason we have traffic jams and high insurance.  The tachometer is important but not as much as the speedometer.  Also, conditions should influence your speed.  I recommend driving about 95 when you are in Nevada on a drive clear day.  If you are in the mountains shrouded in fog, during an ice storm, slowing down may help.

So, as you drive your career, investments, and life, what are your conditions and where should you watch to keep from crashing? 

You tell me.